ANALYSIS / Why Thaksin is favored over king in Isan

Tetsuya Tsuruhara / Yomiuri Shimbun Asian General Bureau Chief

Thailand is divided into northern, northeastern, central and southern administrative regions. The northeastern region, called Isan in the Thai language, is the least developed area among them. As farming--the only industry in the region--is slack, the region's per capita household income is two-thirds of the national average, and a mere one-third of Bangkok's. Many young people, both men and women, leave for the capital and physical labor-related jobs, sending money back home if they can manage.

The people of Isan are Laotians of Thai origin and speak Isan, which is extremely close to the standard language of Laos, located across the Mekong River. Until the mid-20th century, the Isan people felt they belonged to the Lao ethnic group. Isan writer Kamsingh Srinok says, "We have been looked down upon and controlled by the central government throughout our history." They have had to get used to poverty and the fate of being ruled, trying to find temporary pleasures to distract them from their pain.

This changed in 2001, when the administration of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra came to power.

Thaksin launched unprecedented measures to aid the poverty-stricken Isan people, including the introduction of an inexpensive medical service system that requires patients to pay only 30 baht (about 92 cents), an easy-to-borrow system of agricultural funds and promotion of a "one village, one product" campaign.

Thaksin declared in 2004 that an Isan household with a monthly income of 3,000 to 4,000 baht would see its income increase to 10,000 baht within five years.

These initiatives were motivated by populist politics to gather votes with minimal fiscal outlay. But the Isan people found "hope" instead of "fate [in the face of poverty]."

In the country's first ever national referendum held Aug. 19 on a new Thai Constitution that shapes a post-Thaksin Thailand, 57.8 percent of voters nationwide supported the new Constitution, while 62.8 percent of the people of Isan were against it. Paijit Sriworakan, a former House of Representatives member of Thaksin's party elected from Nakhon Phanom Province, which recorded the highest percentage of negative votes among a total of 76 provinces, said, "Such a high percentage of negative votes represents a denial of the military coup that ousted Thaksin last September and loyalty toward him."

One leading intellectual was shocked when a farmer he met in Isan said, "I revere Thaksin more than [Thai] King Bhumibol [Adulyadej]. Thaksin gave us money."

Even King Bhumibol, who has reigned for more than 60 years and is revered like a god, is no match for Thaksin in terms of popularity among the Isan people.

The military-led Thai interim government has taken various measures to prevent the former prime minister returning to favor, including dissolving Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party, freezing his and his family's bank accounts, and filing criminal complaints against Thaksin and his wife. However, the national referendum that was intended as the final round of such efforts unexpectedly served to give momentum to a Thaksin resurgence.

The mainstream faction of the former Thai Rak Thai party regards the more than 10 million negative votes registered in the national referendum as the number of votes it will be able to garner in a general election scheduled for December. It calculates its candidates will be able to capture 110 seats in Isan and at least 200 seats across the country in the 480-seat lower house. If this calculation proves correct, the People Power Party--taken over by the faction--will become the largest party in the lower house. If an agreement is reached on a coalition government, the former members of the Thai Rak Thai might come back to power.

Former Bangkok Gov. Samak Sundaravej, who became leader of the People Power Party, said, "I don't mind being called a nominee of Mr. Thaksin," indicating his intention to use Thaksin's name as a political magnet to strengthen his leadership.

The anti-Thaksin democratic forces in Bangkok that prompted last year's military coup may well have thought no one could oust Thaksin through elections.

Referring to personnel changes within the Royal Thai Army scheduled for late September, Suriyasai Katasila, the leader of one of such democratic force, said it is necessary to appoint a commander who would not allow Thaksin to regain power.

A situation similar to that which prevailed before the 2006 military coup is emerging.

Democracy will not develop in Thailand unless the fundamental issue of poverty, as symbolized by the Isan region, is tackled in earnest.

(Sep. 6, 2007)